Egypt; the military may weed out dictators but can?t plant democrats

For Egypt it is back to square one or to be precise back to Tahrir Square. This time the people were spurred on by the military which reared its head and literary threw down the gauntlet demanding the impossible.

The now deposed and detained Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy was asked to deal with the demands of the protesting crowds all over Egypt within 48 hours or the army would move in.

Impossible because the myriad of problems Egypt is now facing especially those related to democracy and human freedoms are many decades old related to the dictatorial military arrangements of the past 50 or so years. To solve them in two days would require the Lord Himself.

As predicted the army moved in and installed a stooge; a Supreme Constitutional Court Judge Adly Mansour.

Deposed Mohamed Morsy came to power after winning an election. His was always going to be an uphill task. Being from the Muslim Brotherhood the pressure from within Egypt awaited him. Then the Middle East that is battling militant Islam and all forms of religious extremism was not comfortable either.

But the most potentially effective and real opposition would come from Israel and the West. There is no way the two were going to allow a confessed Islamist party to sit pretty in the Middle East. Their laid back reaction to the coup speaks volumes.

Another disadvantage for Morsy is that he was a Commander in Chief of an Egyptian Army which has mastered the art of opportunism. Their ability to switch sides and back the right horse at the right time is becoming all too perfect and legendary.

When Hosni Mubarak who had ruled Egypt for 30years from 1981 to 2011 was opposed by the masses in Tahrir Square, the army made a correct calculation and looked on as Mubarak fell and ended up in jail.

They remained neutral playing wait and see as they witnessed the election that brought Morsy to power. When the people went back to Tahrir Square, they saw that theirs was the right to back.
Now Egypt is back to square one. Senior figures of the Freedom and Justice party the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood have naturally dug in. They will not accept the coup that ousted their leader. There are already reports of protests from the brothehood and skirmishes to which the army has responded with live ammunition in some places.

Effectively, the army is going to be in charge from here to the future; hand picking and dropping leaders like hot potatoes as the situation warrants.

The lesson here for Africa and Uganda is that the army as an institution has remained the same and changed at the same time.
It is the same in that its primitive instinct means that overlooking the Constitution and resorting to raw force is still very much an easy and workable option for them. The change is that they no longer go to the Presidential Palace and play the role of King. They simply kick out one dictator and then play King Maker. They place their man in the seat. That man does not necessarily have to be a democrat. He has to be their man.

The army may remove a dictator but it is not the right institution to lead a movement to install a democrat. That is not in their nature even if they love to masquerade and posture about the same.
It makes matters worse if the army is operating in an environment where an unpopular leader has been in power for long which is 20 to 30 years. The army will definitely be part of all that make that President -especially the bad side.

It will have played a role in the massive corruption, degrading of State institutions like the Court of Law, militarising the police and repression.

When they sense that the tide is against the dictator they heap all the sins on him like a sacrificial lamb and encourage him to be pushed away like it was done with Mubarak.
Though on the surface that may look good, the outstanding issues remain because the State still finds itself without institutions that ensure effective democratic governance. The situation remains fragile and always in apparent need for a quick fix, which the army is always willing and able to provide. That is how the army becomes part of the political fabric.

Lesson is that when the army tastes the liquorice of politics they will often malinger but rarely let go. That is not good for democracy. The masses in Egypt still have many days of protest ahead of them.

Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues. nicholassengoba@yahoo.com

Source: http://www.monitor.co.ug/OpEd/OpEdColumnists/NicholasSengooba/Egypt--the-military-may-weed-out-dictators-but/-/1293432/1908726/-/kr5uib/-/index.html

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